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The Mystery of William Frederick OTTAWAY

My inability to prove William Frederick's correct parentage stemmed partly from the fact that there were two William's born within a couple of miles of one another and within a few months of each other. Both had a mother called Eliza OTTAWAY; one William was illegitimate and was born in the Workhouse, the other was born legitimately into an old established Chobham family. Without William Frederick's marriage certificate to Mary Ann HARRISON, it is very difficult to state for sure which William is "mine". As a wise person once said, "Genealogy without documentary proof is just Mythology". However, with the help of Tricia Otway, I believe we now have an answer.

These are the all the possible contenders I can find for "my" William:
Some other clues:
So far, no marriage certificate for William Frederick has come to light. However, the 1971 census for Surrey has turned up a very interesting family group, and one which helps to explain William's antecedents:

Parish of Chobham, Common Field [RG10/806 fol. 147]
David Smithers Head Married age 31 Occupation Labourer Born Chobham Surrey
Eliza Smithers Wife Married age 27 Born Chobham Surrey
William Smithers Son Unmarried age 9 Scholar Born Chobham Surrey
Elizabeth Smithers Daur Unmarried age 6 Scholar Born Chobham Surrey
Emily Smithers Daur Unmarried age 4 Scholar Born Chobham Surrey

The Parish Records show that David and Eliza were married in 1863, yet William's age is correctly given as 9 years old, therefore born 1861. Eliza's age confirms that she is the Eliza born in 1844, and her marriage certificate shows her father as Charles, therefore confirming her place in this Ottaway family. She cannot have been the Eliza Ottaway (nee GOSDEN) married to Arthur, a) because she was nearly ten years younger than Eliza married to Arthur, and b) because Arthur was alive at least until 1881. I need to examine the 1871 census further in order to identify the William born to Arthur and Eliza. I would still like to find the marriage certificate of William and Mary Ann, but it is now not so urgent as hitherto.